全球价值链的高嵌入能否带来国际分工的高地位——基于贸易增加值视角的跨国面板数据分析

Can Deep Participation in Global Value Chain Bring High Position in International Division of Labor?:A Transnational Panel Data Analysis Based on Value-added Trade

基于全球价值链分工形式下的贸易增加值分解方法,采用2015年OECD-WTO联合公布的最新增加值贸易Ti VA数据库,计算和评估世界贸易总额前十国家(地区)的全球价值链嵌入度和国际分工地位指数,并进一步采用58个国家(地区)的七年面板数据进行回归分析,以考察各国GVC嵌入程度及其与国际分工地位的关系,以及国家制度环境对这一关系的影响。结果表明:(1)中国在基本评估中高居全球价值链嵌入程度第一,但国际分工地位处于偏后位置。(2)无论是全球前十国家(地区)的基本评估,还是58个国家(地区)的回归分析,都显示GVC嵌入度和国际分工地位之间呈现负相关,即全球价值链参与程度越高的国家,国际分工地位反而越低。(3)

Based on value-added trade under global value chain, the paper uses the latest TiVA database in 2015 by OECD-WTO to calculate GVC-partieipation index and GVC-position index of the top 10 international trade countries or regions in the world. Then it further uses the 7-year panel data of 58 countries/regions to make a regression analysis of the two, and the influence on them by institutional environment. The results indicate： （1） In the basic appraisal of top 10 countries/ regions, China＇ s GVC -participation ranks No. 1 but its GVC -position falls behind. （2） No matter in the appraisal of top 10 or in the regression of 58 countries/regions, significant negative correlation exists, that is to say, the countries which have deep GVC-participation may have low GVC-position. （3） When we break GVC-participation index into GVC-participation-upstream index and GVC-participation-downstream index, the above mentioned results which are inconsistent with our former expectation could be well explained： GVC -participation-upstream index is positively correlated with GVC -position and GVC-participation-downstream index is negatively correlated with GVC- position, namely when a country participates GVC more to supply intermediate goods to other counties, it will get high GVC position; when a country participates GVC more to use intermediate goods from other counties, its GVC position will be low. This illustrates that the participating activities of GVC are more important than the involvement degree of GVC. （4） Meanwhile, institutional environment has a positive moderating role in GVC - participation - upstream and GVC - position, but a negative moderating role in GVC-participation-downstream and GVC- position, which verifies that good institutional environments only do good to countries which adopt ＂high-end participation＂ GVC strategy, but are difficult to improve the position of countries which participate in downstream processing activities.