区域海洋经济对国家海洋战略的响应测度

Response measures of the marine economy to regional economic development

区域海洋经济作为沿海地区经济的重要组成部分,有必要测度其实现其对国家海洋战略响应程度的高低。本文梳理了中国各个时期海洋发展战略的演变趋势,运用以综合赋权法为基础的模糊识别模型、VAR模型及GIS空间技术对海洋经济发展水平进行测度,并分析海洋经济与国家海洋战略之间的响应关系。研究结果表明:(1)1996-2013年中国海洋经济低值地区发展速度提升较快,高值地区发展有减缓趋势,区域差距逐渐缩小,整体发展水平呈现波动性上升态势;(2)山东、浙江、江苏对国家海洋战略响应程度一直保持高水平,海洋经济向好的方向发展趋势明显;辽宁、天津、河北早期响应程度较高,2006年以后趋于弱递减平稳状态;上海、广西对战略响应程度保持较高水平,且波动幅度较小,海洋经济发展较为稳定;广东、福建、海南海洋经济发展受国家海洋战略影响不断提升,但存在一定滞后期。因而,未来应因地制宜地分类制定海洋经济发展战略与政策以充分发挥作用。

This article examines the evolution of China＇s marine development strategy over different historical periods. Based on the comprehensive empowerment method,we used a fuzzy recognition model,VAR model and GIS space technology to measure the marine economy development level,and analyzed the response of the relationship between national marine strategy and marine economy. We found that from 1996 to 2013,low- value area development accelerated faster,while the development of high- value area development slowed. The regional gap is narrowing and the overall development level presents a fluctuant rising state. In specific regions including Shandong,Guangdong and Zhejiang,the marine economic development tendency remained at a relatively high level;in Liaoning,Jiangsu,Fujian and other provinces the rising tendency evidently ascends to intermediate level while Hainan and Guangxi are at a relatively low level. In Shandong,Zhejiang and Jiangsu,the response degree to national marine strategy is relatively high and their marine economy development positive trend is obvious. In Liaoning,Tianjin and Hebei,the early response degree to national marine strategy is relatively high,while after 2006,the trend starts to decrease and enter a steady state. The response degree to the national marine strategy of Shanghai and Guangxi is less volatile,which shows that marine economic development is relatively stable. Marine economic development in Guangdong,Fujian and Hainan continues to ascend by the influence of national marine strategy,albeit with a lag. In the future,we should generate marine economic development strategies and policies according to local conditions.