基于LMDI方法分析中国产业结构变动对碳排放的影响

Industrial structure changes impacts on carbon emissions in China based on LMDI method

中国过去30多年高速经济增长的同时也伴随着较大的产业结构变动,而产业结构变动对中国日益严峻的碳排放控制形势有着举足轻重的影响。本文基于1980-2010年能源平衡表中终端能耗数据,对中国CO2排放量进行核算。利用LMDI方法将碳排放量的变化分解为经济总量效应、产业结构效应、能源强度效应和能源结构效应,将碳排放强度的变化分解为产业结构效应、能源强度效应和能源结构效应,从而得到产业结构变化对碳排放量和碳排放强度作用结果。结果显示中国碳排放强度年均下降率达到了3.71%(2005年不变价),下降速度与发达国家的最快下降速度基本持平,说明中国节能减排的成效显著。技术进步对如此大的下降速度贡献较大,产业结构变动的贡献较小。

China＇s rapid economic growth of the past 30 years has been accompanied by large changes in industrial structure. Changes in industrial structure have a significant impact on carbon emission control,and this is becoming increasingly serious for China. Based on energy end- use data from energy balance sheets we calculated CO_2 emissions from 1980 to 2010 in China. Using the LMDI method,the change in carbon emissions was decomposed into economic gross effect,industrial structure effect,energy intensity effect and energy structure effect,and change in carbon emission intensity was decomposed into industrial structure effect,energy intensity effect and energy structure. We then obtained a measure of the influence of industrial structural change on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. We found that the average annual decline ratio in China＇s carbon emission intensity reached 3.71%（2005 constant prices）,which basically equals the fastest rate of decline in developed countries. Energy conservation and emission reduction in China has been remarkable. The advancement of technology has made a large contribution to the decline rate and the contribution of industrial structural change is relatively small. The sector breakdown degree will have impacts on the results of industrial structure change influences on carbon emissions in China. The more detailed the classification of sectors,the greater the effect of industrial structural change,but the increased magnitude will decrease. Adjustment of industrial structure will contribute to economic increases,energy demand and CO_2 emission reduction in China.