中国环保产业政策工具的比较分析——基于GRA-VAR模型的实证研究

An empirical analysis of policy instrument comparison in China's environmental industry according to GRA-VAR modeling

环保产业是连接环境与经济的桥梁,是"十三五"时期国家的重点建设内容,为更有效地促进环保产业发展,有必要对众多环保产业政策工具进行比较。本文基于国外经验及中国实际构建了中国环保产业政策工具分类的概念模型,并在此基础上应用中国环保产业营业收入和三类六项政策工具的1995-2014年数据构建GRAVAR模型,通过测度政策工具对环保产业的重要程度及影响比较环保产业多项政策工具。研究得出:在促进环保产业发展三类政策中,科技政策工具最优、经济政策工具次之、法制政策工具最弱。其中,科技政策工具中代表成果的细分工具在六项细分工具中排名第五;经济政策工具作为经济手段,其与环保产业的关联程度高于另两类行政手段与环保产业的平均关联程度。

As a key to combining economy and environment, the environmental industry has been recognized as an essential part of China＇s 13 th Five- Year Plan. In order to accelerate the development of the environmental industry,it is necessary to classify policy instruments and compare their effects on the environmental industry. This paper proposes a conceptual model to classify policy instruments in China＇s environmental industry. Based on this conceptual model, a GRA-VAR measurement model for comparison of the classified policy instruments is constructed.Based on the data for revenue and environmental policy instruments from 1995 to 2014,the importance of these policy instruments to the environmental industry is further measured. In this paper, the legal and technological policy instruments are used as the administrative means while the economic policy instrument is the economic means for analysis and discussion. The legal policy instrument has the least promotion effects on the environmental industry compared to the economic and technology policy instruments, which mainly results from the indirect effects on the environmental industry＇s revenue, the imperfect formulation and implement of regulations and the lack of effective mechanism of environmental standard revision. As the economic means, the economic policy instrument has a higher average correlation with the environmental industry compared to the policy instruments of the administrative means, because it costs less financial resources and triggers lower possibilities for rent- seeking or corruption. The technological policy instrument has the largest promotion effects on the environmental industry due to the critical role of technological innovations in the development of emerging industries, but the imperfect mechanism of the environmental technology achievement transformation enables little influence of the achievement promotion tool in this instrument on the environmental industry.