典型国家工业化进程中经济社会与能源环境协调发展分析

Typical country's coordinated development of the economy-society and energy-environment during industrialization

国家经济社会与能源环境的协调发展特征因各国工业化程度不同而存在差异,通过分析典型国家在工业化进程中经济社会与能源环境协调发展的演进趋势,可为其他国家未来工业化进程中实现经济社会与能源环境协调发展提供理论依据。本文以美国、日本等8个典型国家为例,运用修正后的耦合协调发展度模型对其1961-2011年的国家经济社会与能源环境的耦合协调发展特征进行研究和分析。结果表明:1961-2011年期间日本、韩国、西班牙等工业化完成国家经历了完整的工业化进程,经济社会与能源环境的协调发展度呈现明显的"U"型变化趋势,而美国、法国等后工业化国家因处于后工业化阶段而处于"U"型曲线右侧的上升阶段,埃及、马来西亚、泰国等前工业化国家因处于工业化发展阶段而处于"U"型曲线左侧的下降阶段。各国因工业化开始时间、发展速度及产业结构、能源结构、人口规模和城市化水平差异,其协调发展度谷值时间和谷值量存在差异。

During industrial development,harmonious development between the economic society and energy environment varies between nations. The coordinated development of the national economy and society and energy environment is different because of different levels of industrialization in different countries. Here,we look at a range of countries and use a modified coupled coordination development degree model to study the characteristics of national economic and social and energy environment developmental coupling from 1961- 2011. We found that the development economy and society in the process of industrialization and the energy and environment have an obvious U pattern;upgrading of industrial structure is key to coupling coordinated development,and the key link in coordinated development is the energy structure and appropriate population scale and urbanization level. From 1961 to 2011,Japan,South Korea,Spain and other rapidly industrialized countries have gone through the whole process of industrialization,the coordinated development of economy and society and energy environment has a U trend. The early industrialized countries of the USA and France are at the right side of the U curve. Egypt,Malaysia and Thailand are at a stage of industrialization and the decline of the left of the U curve.Given the moderate population scale and level of urbanization in China,as soon as possible the country should improve industrial structure and transform energy consumption structure adjustment policy,promote industrial structural forms of development of the‘Three two one＇,prompt clean energy structure,and enhance high efficiency development.