基于PHM的舰艇装备视情维修技术研究

Research on Condition Based Maintenance Technology of Warship Equipment Based on PHM

针对PHM技术在舰艇装备视情维修中的应用需求,在分析剩余寿命预测机理的基础上,为解决舰艇装备历史数据少、状态变化普遍表现为非线性等难题,建立基于粒子滤波的多步剩余寿命预测模型,通过仿真表明;随着时间的推移剩余寿命PDF图变狭窄,剩余寿命预测误差逐渐降低,证明了预测方法的有效性;在此基础上,考虑装备维修费用最低为目标,建立以费用最低为目标的预防性维修时间确定模型,使得单位时间内的平均维修费用最低,并通过采用建立的基于粒子滤波的多步剩余寿命预测模型,最终确定了最优预防性维修时间,为装备保障人员拟订精确维修保障计划提供依据,也为舰艇装备开展视情维修奠定基础。

Aiming at the application requirements of PHM technology in condition based maintenance of warship equipment, based on the analysis on the mechanism of residual life prediction , to solve the ships less historical data, the change of state is generally characterized by nonlinear problem , a multi--step prediction model of residual life based on particle filter is established, the simulation shows that with the passage of time remaining life PDF figure become narrow, gradually reduce the residual life prediction error, proved the validity of the method. On this basis, the minimum cost is taken as the target to study the decision model of preventive maintenance time, the per unit of time the average maintenance cost minimum, and through the use of the multi--step residual life prediction model based on particle filter, the optimal preventive maintenance time is confirmed at last, which provided a basis to formulate accurate maintenance support plan for e quipment support personnel and established the foundation for the research on condition based maintenance.