当前跨境资金流出的主要渠道、风险评估和相关建议——以新疆地区为例

The Main Channel of the Current Cross-border Capital Outflow,Risk Assessment and Related Recommendations——A Case of Xinjiang

2015年以来,我国外汇形势由过去持续多年的外汇净流入状态进入到"总体基本平衡、短期波动加大"的新阶段,跨境资金短期流出压力明显加剧。新疆外汇收支形势与全国基本保持一致,跨境收付从持续多年的"顺差"开始向"逆差"方向逆转,凸显跨境资金流出压力。本文通过分析区域跨境资金流出的主要渠道和特点,对当前跨境资金流出整体形势进行风险评估和趋势预测,查找可能存在的风险点和异常点,并从加强跨境资金流出监测分析、有针对性地开展非现场和现场核查、督促银行切实履行"展业三原则"、加强对个人购付汇行为的宣传和管理、加强对"出口不收汇"企业的分类监管等五个方面提出相关建议。

Since 2015, the foreign exchange situation in China has changed from net inflows in the past continuous years to a new phase in which the foreign is basic balanced in the all but the fluctuation increases in short term, and the short-term cross-border capital outflow pressure has increased significantly. The situation of foreign exchange receipts and expenditures in Xinjiang is basically consistent with the whole country, cross-border payment has changed from continuous years of＂surplus＂ to＂deficit＂ highlighting the cross-border capital outflow pressure. Through the analysis on the main channel and characteristics of cross-border capital outflows,the paper evaluates the possible risk and forecasts the trend of the overall outflow situation, looks for possible risky and abnormal points, and puts forward related suggestions such as enhancing the monitoring analysis on the cross-border capital outflows, carrying out aimed on-site and off-site supervision, urging banks to comply to principles of expanding business, strengthening the propaganda and management of personal payments of foreign exchange, and strengthening classified management of enterprises which export their products but does not receive the foreign exchange.