最低工资会挤出外出劳动力供给吗?——基于第五次人口普查和地级市匹配数据的分析

Will Minimum Wage Crowd Out the Supply of Rural- urban Migrants? Analysis based on the 5th Population Census and the Matched Prefecture-level Data

最低工资对流动劳动者的劳动供给是否具有挤出效应?在考虑劳动者个人和宏观环境异质性后,中国劳动力市场上存在最低工资对流动劳动者劳动供给的挤出效应,这种挤出效应约为-0.06左右;最低工资的变动也会产生一定的挤出效应,但影响程度相对较低,在考虑了劳动者流动自选择等因素后,稳健性分析发现上述结论依旧成立。这种挤出效应产生的内在机理在于,最低工资对就业创造和就业侵蚀具有非对称的效应,其中对前者的效应较小,而对后者的影响较大,通过工作机会的减少可以影响流动劳动者的劳动力供给。完善城乡统一的劳动力市场、健全税收和转移支付制度是在一定程度上减少这种挤出效应的有效办法。

Will minimum wage crowd out the labor supply of mobile labor force? Taking the individual worker and the heterogeneity of macro- environment into consideration,the crowding- out effect does exist in Chinese labor market,which is approximately- 0. 06. The fluctuation of minimum wage will also exert such an effect,which is relatively weak and remains valid through the robustness analysis after taking factors such as self- choice of mobility into account. The inner mechanism which generates Such an effect lies in the asymmetric effects on employment creation,which is weak,and employment erosion,which is strong. Their joint effect results in the decline of employment opportunity,and then,the labor supply of rural- urban migrants.To relieve this crowding- out effect,it is urgently needed to create a unified labor market through urban and rural areas and perfect the tax system,as well as the transfer payment system.