厦门市慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡趋势分析及预测

Mortality time trends and projection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Xiamen

目的通过了解厦门市2002-2014年慢性阻塞性肺病死亡情况并对其发展趋势作出预测,从而为进一步制定COPD防控策略提供参考。方法采用Microsoft Excel和SAS 9.0软件对2002-2014年厦门市COPD死亡年报资料进行汇总,并计算COPD的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年估计变化百分比等指标,通过灰色数列GM(1,1)模型预测COPD死亡趋势。结果 2002-2014年厦门市居民COPD年均粗死亡率13.73/10万(标化死亡率12.99/10万)。2002-2014年厦门市COPD死亡率波动较大,年度变化不稳定(P﹥0.05)。运用灰色模型对厦门市COPD死亡率进行建模值及预测,从模型预测的总体趋势而言,厦门市COPD死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,预测厦门市2015年、2016年、2017年COPD死亡率分别为23.81/10万、30.69/10万、39.82/10万。结论厦门市COPD死亡率将出现上升趋势,需引起各医疗部门的重视,提早加强对高危人群的重点预防,降低人群的COPD发病率和死亡率。

Objective To analyze the mortality and variation trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） in Xiamen from 2002-2014, project the mortality time trends and to provide evidences for prevention and control strategy of COPD. Methods Microsoft Excel and SAS 9.0 were applied to create the database based on annual death reports of COPD in Xiamen from 2002-2014, and to calculate crude death rate, standardized mortality, estimating average annual percent change（EAPC）, etc. GM（1,1） model was used to project the mortality time trends of COPD. Results The mean crude mortality of COPD in Xiamen from 2002-2014 was 13.73/105（the standardized rate was 12.99//10^5）. The mortality rate of COPD was unstable（P〉0.05）. Using GM（1,1） model to forecast the COPD mortality, from the overall trend of model prediction, the mortality rate was increasing year by year, and the mortality rate of COPD in Xiamen from 2015 to 2017 were 23.81/10^5, 30.69/10^5 and 39.82/10^5. Conclusion The mortality rate of COPD in Xiamen shows ascending trend, need to cause the attention of the medical departments, to strengthen the prevention of high-risk groups, and then to reduce the incidence and mortality of COPD.