新余市近52年来暴雨气候特征分析

Analysis on climatic characteristics of rainstorm in Xinyu over the past 52 years

利用1959-2010年新余逐日降水资料和暴雨定义,通过趋势、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall法(简称M-K法)分析其变化特征。结果表明:新余市暴雨季节变化显著,4-6月为多暴雨季节,最多的月份出现在6月;新余市年暴雨日数和汛期暴雨日数都有准12a的周期变化,先后经历了3个偏多期和4个偏少期;暴雨日数的变化和降水量的变化是一致的,尤其是汛期相关系数高达0.805。无论是汛期还是全年,新余市暴雨日数和降水量都正在由偏少向偏多转换。突变主要发生在60年代初和80年代中期。

Based on the daily precipitation data of Xinyu from 1959 to 2010 and rainstorm definition,using trend analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall method（ M-K method）,climatic characteristics of rainstorm were analysed. Results show that： 1） the seasonal variation of Xinyu＇s rainstorm was significant,the rainstorm season was from April to June,especially in June; 2） the number of annual rainstorm days and flood season＇s rainstorm days in Xinyu had a 12 a cycle,it had three above-normal period and four less-than-normal period,the change of rainstorm days was the same as the change of precipitation,especially in the flood season correlation coefficient was 0. 805; 3） rainstorm days and precipitation changed from below normal to above normal. The abrupt change occurred in the early 1960 s and the mid-1980 s.