信息披露、投资经验与羊群行为——基于众筹投资的研究

Information Disclosure,Investment Experience and Herding Behavior——Study on the Crowd Funding Investment

众筹是提升资金配置效率、促进各类创新社会化的直接融资渠道。然而,在市场配套制度设计尚不健全的条件下,此类集大众化、群体性于一体的网络投资行为极易诱致非理性的行为偏误。本文以羊群行为为切入点,基于贝叶斯理论阐述了众筹投资者羊群行为的形成及影响机理,采用国内首个众筹平台点名时间的微观面板数据进行实证检验,发现直接信息的披露和操作经验的积累有利于投资者甄别项目质量,提升投资决策的理性化程度,降低实际回报与投资预期偏离的概率;而间接信息的披露则容易导致市场噪音,加剧投资决策的非理性羊群行为,加大实际回报与投资预期偏离的概率。最终从资本形成、信息披露、投资者教育和项目管理等层面提出了完善众筹融资的建议。

As a new social direct financing channel,the crowd funding improves the efficiency of fund allocation and promotes innovation development.However,these popular group online investment behaviors are inclined to form irrational behavior bias due to the imperfect market matching system design.Focused on the herding behavior,the formation mechanism and influence factors are analyzed in the Bayesian theory firstly,and then empirical tests are taken using the panel data from the first crowd funding platform demo-hour in China.Three important points have been concluded.Firstly,the direct information and practical experience are conducive to leading investors to identify project quality,make rational choice and reduce the probability of deviation between the actual investment return to the expectation.Secondly,the indirect information intensifies the investors＇ irrational herding behaviors as market noise and increases the probability of deviation between the actual investment return to the expectation.Finally,suggestions are made from the capital formation,information disclosure,investor education and project management to promote the industry development.