制度环境、政策不连续性与服务业可持续性增长——基于中国地方官员更替的视角

Policy Discontinuity,Institutional Environment and Sustainable Growth of Service Sector:Based on Perspective of Provincial Leaders' Turnover

本文基于地方官员更替视角,利用1999-2013年省级官员变更数据,实证检验了政策不连续性对服务业可持续性增长的影响,以及制度环境的调节作用。研究发现:(1)官员变更所引发的政策不连续性对服务业可持续性增长有显著的抑制作用。(2)制度环境的改善有助于克服政策不稳定性给服务业可持续性增长带来的负面影响,在制度环境较好的地区,政策不连续性对服务业可持续性增长的抑制性作用相对更弱。(3)地方官员任期与服务业可持续增长有"U型"关系,表明在换届过渡期,短视性政策行为会诱发政策的不连续,引发企业不确定性预期,对服务业可持续性增长产生负向影响。但随着任期延续,政策环境趋于稳定连续,持续释放的政策红利有助于形成稳定的市场预期,进而提升服务业可持续性增长能力。(4)晋升锦标赛可能加剧资源要素错误配置和扭曲服务业投资-消费结构,从而引致服务业增长的不可持续。

From the perspective of local officials＇ turnover,this paper empirically tests the impact of policy discontinuity on sustainable growth of service sector from 1999 to 2013by samples of provincial leaders,and investigates the regulating effect of institutional environment.This study finds：（1）policy discontinuity caused by officials＇ turnover significantly inhibits sustainable growth of service sector.（2）the inhibiting effect of policy discontinuity on service sector is weaker in better institutional environment,which means that improving institutional environment will help us overcome the negative impact of policy instability on sustainable growth of service sector.（3）U-shaped relationship exists between officials＇ tenure and sustainable growth of service sector.During the transition period of power handover,shortsighted incentive leads to discontinuous policy and triggers uncertainty expectation,which is negative to sustainable growth of service sector.As official＇s tenure becomes longer,coherent and sustained policy environment reaps more benefits reform and contributes to stable market expectations,which enhance sustainable growth capacity of service sector.（4）tournament competition will exacerbate resource misallocation and distort investment-consumption structure of service sector,which ultimately leads to unsustainable growth of service sector.