中国货币政策非对称干预资产价格波动的宏观经济效应——基于分段线性新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟和评价

Macroeconomic Effects of Asymmetric Monetary Policy Intervention on Asset Price Fluctuations in China——Simulation and Analysis Based on a Piecewise Linear NK-DSGE Model

非对称干预资产价格波动是全球主要经济体中央银行货币政策调控的普遍做法,但其调控效果和潜在风险并没有得到学术界的充分重视和研究。本文将中国中央银行"提前宽松"式非对称干预资产价格波动的货币政策调控模式纳入一般均衡分析框架,构建了一个分段线性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,并借助Occbin工具进行模型求解和数值模拟,考察了非对称干预资产价格波动的货币政策调控的宏观经济效应,揭示了其造成的潜在金融风险。研究发现:非对称干预资产价格波动的货币政策在一定程度上加剧了经济系统的非线性和非对称性特征,其推动经济繁荣、抑制经济衰退的效果不仅不显著,且会导致利率长期低于均衡水平。因此,非对称干预资产价格波动的货币政策调控模式可能会成为内生金融风险的重要源头,诱发市场资源错配和严重的金融失衡。本文这一发现契合了2008年金融危机前"大稳健"时期典型的经济现实。通过数值模拟和比较,本文还发现,货币政策干预资产价格波动的模式从"非对称性"向"对称性"转变能够减轻上述风险。本文的研究结论对于完善中国中央银行货币政策调控、避免重蹈美国房地产次级贷款危机的覆辙具有重要的启示意义。

Asymmetrically intervening on asset price fluctuations is common in monetary policy practices of major economies＇ s central banks around the world. However, the macroeconomic effects and potential risks of asymmetric intervention haven＇t been paid enough attention nor fully explored academically. This paper incorporates the pattern of asymmetric monetary policy intervention on asset price fluctuations of China＇s central bank, namely＂preemptive easing＂, into the general equilibrium framework, to construct a piecewise linear New-keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, and investigates the macroeconomic effects and potential financial risks of the asymmetric monetary policy intervention with an piecewise linear solution mothod named Occbin and numerical simulation techniques. The research finds that, asymmetric monetary policy intervention on asset price fluctuations would exacerbate nonlinearity and asymmetry of the economy to some extent, but has little effect on promoting economic prosperity or dampenning recessions. Conversely, it would lead interest rate to stay below its equilibrium level for a long time. Therefore, asymmetric monetary policy intervention on asset price fluctuations might be a major source of endogenous financial risks, to induce resources misallocations and severe financial imbalances, the finding fits the economic reality of ＂The Great Moderation＂ period before 2008 financial crisis very well. Based on numerical simulation and comparison, the research also implys that a transition of monetary policy intervention on asset price fluctuations from ＂asymmetric＂ to ＂symmetric＂ could reduce these aforementioned risks.These research results are of great significance to ameliorate monetary policy of China＇s central bank and to avoid pitfalls like the subprime-mortgate crisis in America.