城镇化与人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响

Influencing on residents consumption by urbanization and population's age structure

利用2004-2014年中国31个省级行政区的面板数据,基于含有固定效应的空间杜宾模型,分析了城镇化与人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响。结果显示:城镇化对居民消费的直接影响不显著;少儿抚养比对居民消费有显著的负的直接与间接影响;老年抚养比对居民消费产生了显著的负的直接效应,间接效应不显著,若只考虑直接效应而不考虑空间溢出效应,将低估城镇化及人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响。

Based on the 31 provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014,this essay employs the Space Durbin Model with fixed effect to analyze residents' consumption effect caused by urbanization and population age structure changes.The results show that the urbanization has no significant influence on consumption,but has significant negative spillover influence on consumption;the children dependency ratio has a significant negative direct and indirect inlfluence on consumption,the elderly dependency ratio has a significant direct influence on consumption,while the indirect effect is not significant;Without considering space overflow effect,the role of urbanization and the population age structure will be underestimated.