基于ECM模型的能源消耗与工业经济增长的实证分析

An empirical analysis of energy consumption and industrial economic growth based on ECM model

对2000—2014年江苏省能源消耗与工业经济增长之间的关联度进行了分析,并应用误差修正模型对能源消耗总量与工业GDP增加值之间的长期均衡关系进行了计量分析。研究结果表明,江苏省第二产业耗能占总耗能的比例随着第二产业增加值占总产值的比重变化而变化,二者都呈倒U形;工业GDP的增长对能源总消耗只是存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。同时也说明,健康的工业经济增长与有效的能源节约可以通过调整产业结构和技术创新来实现。针对江苏省能源消耗与工业经济增长协调发展进行研究,对江苏省实现十三五"富强美高"规划具有重要意义。

In this paper,we analyzed the correlation between the energy consumption with the industrial growth in Jiangsu Province from2000 to 2014,and applied error correction model for long-term equilibrium relationship between total energy consumption in the industrial GDP and industrial added value between the quantitative analysis,the results show that the proportion of secondary industry in Jiangsu Province with the energy of the total energy output value of the secondary industry accounted for the proportion of change,both were tested inverted ＂ U＂ shaped; growth in industrial GDP of total energy consumption has unidirectional Granger causality,but also shows the health of the industrial economic growth and effective energy savings can be achieved through adjusting the industrial structure and technological innovation. The authors studied the economic growth for the coordinated development of Jiangsu Province and industrial energy consumption,has a guiding significance for future industrial development in Jiangsu Province.