煤矿井筒安全状态评价体系改进及应用

Improvement and application of mine shaft safety evaluation system

为进一步完善立井井筒安全评价体系,以兴隆庄煤矿主井、副井、东风井和西风井为例,利用改进的经验拟合法和多元统计距离判别法,2015年12月对该4个井筒的稳定情况进行了评价。结果表明:以水位降和地层压缩量为评价因素,西风井有破裂的可能性,主井稳定情况存在不确定性,副井和东风井破裂的可能性较小。为进一步确定主井的稳定性及增加评价的准确性,选取8个影响井壁稳定的主要因素作为判别因子,并收集11个已知结果的兴隆庄煤矿样本建立数学模型,运用最小距离判别法对预测样本进一步评价,发现主井在2015年12月会有破裂的可能性,该4个井筒破裂的危险程度由大到小排序依次为:西风井>主井>副井>东风井。

In order to furtherly improve the evaluation system of the mine shaft,based on the mine main shaft,mine auxiliary shaft,east ventilation shaft and west ventilation shaft in Xinglongzhuang Mine as the examples,the improved experiment fitting method and the multi statistic distance judgement method were applied to evaluate the stability conditions of the four mine shafts on December,2015. The results showed that based on the water table dropping and the strata compression value as the evaluation factors,the west ventilation shaft had a possibility of cracking,the stability of the mine main shaft had an uncertainty and the mine auxiliary shaft and the east ventilation shaft had a small possibility of the cracking. In order to furtherly determine the stability of the mine main shaft and to increase the accuracy of the evaluation,there were eight main factors affected to the stability of the mine shaft liner taken as the judgement factors. There were 11 selected known results of Xinglongzhuang Mine samples applied to establish a mathematic model. The min distance judgement method was applied to the further evaluation of the predicted samples. The possibility of the cracking on the mine main shaft was found on December,2015. The danger degree of the four mine shaft broken was in a sequence from large to small and they were the west ventilation shaft,mine main shaft,auxiliary shaft,east ventilation shaft.