基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的建筑垃圾产量研究

The Construction Waste Production Based on the Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1)

目前,对于建筑垃圾的资源化研究,我国尚处于起步阶段,建筑垃圾的产量研究可为其提供有力的数据基础。通过分析2004—2013年的建筑施工面积,利用面积估算法对建筑垃圾的产量进行估算。采用灰色预测模型对垃圾产量进行精确预测和分析,发现我国建筑垃圾的产量巨大,在未来几年内将呈现持续增长趋势,并因此提出了发展建筑垃圾资源化产业,为有效解决这一问题提供思路。

At present,the research of recycling of construction waste is still in the initial stage in our country,construction waste production research can provide powerful data for its data foundation. The paper uses construction area estimation,and combines with the construction area related data of 2004—2013 to estimate the output of construction waste. And it uses the grey prediction model GM（ 1,1） to predict and analyse the waste production,the results shows that the output of construction waste is huge in China,construction waste will be showed a trend of sustained growth in the next few years. And it puts forward the development of construction waste resource industry,and provide an effective solution to this problem.