中国对外直接投资的国内区域制造业转移效应实证研究

An Empirical Study on Domestic Manufacturing Inter- Regional Transfer Effect of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment

近年来中国制造业对外直接投资迅速发展。深入研究对外直接投资的结构及其效应,有助于理解对外直接投资影响母国产业结构升级或区际产业转移的发生机制。利用系统GMM方法分析2003-2012年中国城市各类动机OFDI的国内区域制造业转移效应。研究显示,东部城市OFDI对中西部城市制造业规模有显著的正向影响;受效率搜寻型OFDI的影响,东北部城市、北部沿海城市和东部沿海城市向中西部城市的"扩张型"制造业转移较为明显,而受技术和市场搜寻型OFDI的综合影响,北部沿海城市和东部沿海城市向中西部城市的"衰退型"制造业转移较为明显。进一步研究发现,金融危机之后,东部城市技术搜寻型OFDI有所增强,并扩大了对中西部城市传统制造业的转移规模,且东部城市对中西部不同层级城市的制造业转移效应均存在差异。最后就如何通过OFDI来促进国内区域间制造业平衡发展提出了相应的政策思考。

By using the system GMM method,the domestic manufacturing inter- regional transfer effect induced by China's OFDI with different motivations is estimated. The empirical results show that OFDI of eastern cities has significant positive effects on the manufacturing scale of central and western cities. Affected by the efficiency- seeking OFDI,expansion type transfer from northeast cities,northern coastal cities and eastern cities to central and western cities is more obvious,while affected by the technology sourcing OFDI and market- seeking OFDI,recession type transfer from northern coastal cities and eastern cities to central and western cities is more obvious. Further analyses reveal that eastern cities enhanced the technology sourcing OFDI and expanded the scale of transfer in traditional manufacturing industry to central and western cities after financial crisis. Manufacturing transfer from eastern cities to capital cities and to non- capital is also different. Finally,we put forward corresponding policies about how to promote the balanced development of regional manufacturing by OFDI.