基于相对风险模型的公私合作项目风险评价研究

RRM-based Research on Risk Assessment of PPP Project

公私合作(Public Private Partnership)作为一个能解决公用事业发展资金瓶颈,且更具社会效益的基础设施建设方式,在中国已经进入高速发展阶段,但由于合作模式的复杂性,一些项目暴露出了较高的风险,因此,对公私合作项目进行合理的量化风险评价显得尤为重要。文章针对公私合作项目的特点,提出了一套较为完整的公私合作项目风险评价指标体系,构建了基于相对风险模型的公私合作项目风险评价模型,并针对相对风险模型对各个子风险单元评价结果组合均衡程度不敏感的弊端,引入变权思想进一步优化评价模型的合理性。案例研究结果表明,该模型能够有效对公私合作项目风险进行综合量化评价,为今后公私合作项目的决策提供更准确、科学的参考和理论依据。

Since PPP is an infrastructure construction method that solves the bottleneck of government, it has been used duringrapid development in China. However, due to the complexity of the cooperative model, practical experience shows that some projectsacquire high risks, conducting risk evaluation of the municipal PPP Project enjoys important research significance. There is a completePPP project risk evaluation index system proposed, and a risk evaluation model is established based on relative risk model（RRM）, withvariable weights to avoid the insensitivity towards the equilibrium degree of combination changes. The case study result shows that thismodel is very effective for risk evaluation of PPP Project, and can be an important reference for decision-making of PPP projects.