面向过程模拟的存量城市土地开发基准数理模型构建——基于动态博弈视角

Construction of Mathematical Model of Urban Land Development Benchmarks for Process-Oriented Stock——Based on Dynamic Game Theory

在新型城镇化战略背景下,城市存量土地再开发已经成为全国各地面临的新常态问题。通过过程模拟,构建了基于动态博弈的城市土地开发基准数理模型,并分别就土地收储模式和自行开发模式判定条件进行了分析。结论如下:1土地开发模式选择与出让金比例、土地增值收益、拆迁奖励等内部要素紧密相关;2土地出让市场价格对应的土地增值越高,原土地使用权人越有激励采用自主开发模式开发,地方政府越有激励采用土地收储模式开发;3土地出让市场价格给定条件下,地方政府收取的出让金比例越高,原土地使用权人自主开发的机会成本越高,越倾向于土地收储模式;4收储模式下的拆迁奖励与补助与自主开发成本越高,越倾向于土地收储模式。5地方政府刚性计提的比例对土地收储中心的决策具有重大影响。

Under the background of the new urbanization strategy, the redevelopment of urban stock has become a new normal problem all over the country. Through the process simulation, the mathematical model of urban land development based on dynamic game is constructed, and the condition of land acquisition and storage model and self- development mode are analyzed respectively. The results show that： ① land development mode selection is closely related to the proportion of land transfer premium, land increment income, demolition incentive and other internal factors; ② the higher the land value corresponding to the land transfer market price, the more incentive to use the original land use right model independent development, The more incentive for local governments to adopt the land purchasing and storage model development; ③ land transfer market prices given conditions, the higher the proportion of local governments to sell the transfer fee, the original land use rights the higher the opportunity cost of independent development, the more inclined to land The mode of purchasing and storage; ④ the relocation compensation and subsidy under the purchasing and storage mode and the higher cost of independent development, the more inclined to the land purchasing and storage model.⑤ The proportion of local government rigid provision has a significant impact on the decision of land purchasing and storage center.