“一带一路”贸易便利化对中国农产品贸易影响研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

Impacts of Trade Facilitation on Agricultural Product Trade Potential of“the Belt and Road”:An Empirical Research Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

贸易便利化是中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易和经济增长的重要途径。本研究利用2008—2014年农产品贸易数据,运用随机前沿引力模型,分析了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家农产品贸易潜力及贸易便利化对其影响。研究表明,"一带一路"贸易便利化呈现"两边高中间低"的特征,基础设施建设是"一带一路"贸易便利化的短板。如果东南亚、南亚地区交通设施建设水平提升至全球平均水平,将会促使中国与该地区农产品贸易量提升25%左右,自贸协定的签署将促进中国与沿线国家农产品贸易提升77%。为进一步提高中国与沿线国家农产品贸易效率,沿线应该整合现有自贸区,基础设施建设宜选东南亚、南亚、独联体地区作为优先建设区,以点带面,推进区域经济一体化。

Trade facilitation is important for China in merchandise trade with “ the belt and road ” and economic growth. Research is based on 2008 -2014 agricultural trade data, using the stochastic frontier gravity model, and analyses the influence of China ’ s agricultural product trade potential with uthe Belt and Road^ countries and analyses trade facilitation to its effects. Studies have shown that ‘‘the Belt and Road” trade facilitation are higher in southeast Asia and Europe than South and central Asia, if traffic facilities construction in southeast Asia and South Asia drives up to the global average, agricultural products trade between China and the region will increase about 25% , the signing of the FTA will promote China’s agricultural trade amount 77% . In order to further improve the efficiency of China agricultural product trade with “the Belt and Road” counties, we should integrate the existing free trade zone, promote regional economic integration. Appropriate chooses the Southeast Asia, South Asia and the commonwealth of independent states as the infrastructure construction of priority areas.