低油价新观察

New perspectives on low oil price

分析两年来低油价下石油产量的变化,以及低油价对主要石油生产国、消费国和天然气行业的影响。低油价对油气产业的科技进步、降本提效产生了巨大推动力,为油气产业结构优化和企业重组带来了活力。低油价下油气生产国加强对外开放,重视经济走向多元化,将促使世界石油市场更加成熟。油气的低价和充分供应,为新能源依靠科技进步大幅降低成本争取了时间,使其得以按市场规律大幅替代化石能源。欧佩克单方面决定原油价格的时代已经结束,多元化的国际石油市场将更有利于保障石油和能源安全。预计近期以不变美元计的油价年均值可能在50~55美元/桶,中长期可望维持在60~80美元/桶。世界油气领域的新常态带来的重大挑战和机遇总体上利于世界经济的发展,中国应抓住这一有利时机。

This paper reviews and analyzes global oil output variation under the low oil price in recent two years and the impacts of low oil price on oil producers and consumers as well as natural gas industry. The low oil price promotes technological advancement, reducing costs and improving efficiency of oil and gas industry and brings vitality to optimization of industry structure and reorganization of petroleum enterprises. Oil and gas producers strengthen opening up and emphasize the economy development diversification under the low price, which would make the oil market more mature. The low price and sufficient supply of oil and gas provide more time for the new energy enterprises to remarkably lower cost through technological advancement and make it possible to largely replace fossil fuels according to the market rules. Moreover, the era of unilateral pricing mechanism under the control of OPEC is already over and the emerging diversified international oil market will be more favorable for ensuring the safety of oil and energy supply. It is predicted that the annual average oil price under the same dollar terms will remain at a relatively low level of 50-55 $/bbl in the near term, while it is expected to keep within the range of 60-805/bbl in the medium-long terms. As a whole, the major challenges and opportunities brought by the new normal of world oil and gas industry are favorable for the development of world economy. China should seize the good opportunity.