经济下行区间下内蒙古就业预测模型仿真分析

Economic Downward Interval Under Employment Forecasting Model the Simulation Analysis of Inner Mongolia

在经济下行的趋势下,内蒙古地区的就业结构随着产业结构的演进在不断优化,所以需要组建内蒙古就业预测模型。但是采用当前的预测方法在建立就业预测模型时,难以提取各个阶段的就业趋势特征,存在建模误差大的问题。为此提出一种基于灰色系统理论的经济下行区间下内蒙古就业预测模型。上述模型先从待预测的劳动力信息数据上提取各个阶段就业趋势特征,将不同阶段表现出不同特征转换为特征向量,计算预测的信息与全部样本的距离,并采用非线性映射方法将经济下行区间下内蒙古就业结构数据转换为转角数据,融合灰色理论组建经济下行区间下内蒙古就业预测模型。仿真证明,所提模型为经济下行区间下内蒙古业指导提供了一定的依据。

Inner Mongolia region employment structure is optimized constantly along with industrial structure evolution under the trend of economic downturn. So we need to build Inner Mongolia employment forecasting model. In this paper,we proposed a prediction model based on grey system theory. Firstly,the author extracted each staged employment tendency feature from labor force information data for predicting. Secondly,different feature was converted in different stage to feature vector and the distance between predicted information and whole sample was calculated.Finally,employment structure data were switched to corner data via nonlinear mapping method. Grey theory was fused to build Inner Mongolia employment prediction model with the trend of economic downturn. Simulation results show that that model offers certain gist for Inner Mongolia careers guidance with the trend of economic downturn.