农村物流发展速度预测仿真研究

Rural logistics Development Speed Prediction Simulation Research

对农村物流发展速度进行准确预测,可对农村物流发展状况进行实时跟踪,使农村经济快速可持续的发展。进行农村物流发展速度预测时,应首先对农村物流和经济之间的因果关系进行详细分析,建立农村物流发展速度预测模型,但是传统的预测方法利用叶贝斯理论对当下农村物流发展现状进行描述,获取制约农村物流发展的因素。利用上述因素之间的联系对物流发展速度进行预测,但无法描述农村物流与经济发展之间的因果关系,存在物流发展速度误差大的问题。提出一种基于互信息的农村物流发展速度预测方法。上述方法先获取农村物流与农村经济发展之间的互动关系,检验出农村物流指标和经济发展指标变量滞后期长度,基于互信息获取农业物流标准化相对滞后的原因以及农村物流滞后对经济的影响,并组建农村物流发展速度预测模型。仿真结果表明,改进方法能有效预测农村物流发展速度,可有效地给出农村物流快速发展的相关对策与建议。

It can follow the development of rural logistics in real time,and make the rural economy develop quickly and continuously to accurately forecast the development speed of rural logistics. In the paper,we proposed a new method for the development of rural logistics based on mutual information. In the method,we first obtained the interactive relationship between the rural logistics and the development of the rural economy to test the rural logistics indicators and economic development indicators variable lag period length. Based on mutual information,we obtained the relative lag of agricultural logistics standardization and the impact of rural logistics lag on the economy,and established a model for the development of rural logistics development speed. The simulation results show that the improved method can effectively predict the rural logistics development speed and effectively give the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the rapid development of rural logistics.