颗粒物分布视角下的健康城市规划研究--理论框架与实证方法

STUDY ON HEALTHY CITY PLANNING FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTION:THEORETIC FRAMEWORK AND EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY

现代城市规划的缘起与公共健康关系密切,20世纪初期作为政府对于公共卫生的干预途径和方法出现。目前欧美对于健康城市规划的研究关注如何通过规划设计,减少特定疾病的患病率,国内相关研究开始起步。由于我国城市大气环境问题日益严峻,雾霾(PM2.5,PM10等颗粒物)频发,导致呼吸系统疾病患病人数上升;非常有必要探究如何通过建成环境要素的规划和设计优化,减缓颗粒物对于居民呼吸系统健康的影响。本文基于颗粒物分布、呼吸系统疾病、城市空间要素三者关系的文献研究,以建成环境要素是否影响颗粒物浓度分布作为自变量选取原则,以人口、社会和经济因素作为协变量,以呼吸系统疾病(特别是肺癌)的个体病患分布和特定空间单元患病率作为因变量,建构在颗粒物分布视角下的健康城市规划理论框架,并提出构建实证模型的方法和路径。

The origin of modem urban planning is closely related to public health. It served as an intervention approach and method for public health by government in the early 20th century. Current studies on healthy city planning in Europe and America focus on how to decrease morbidity of specific diseases through planning and design, and related studies in China start to emerge as well. Today air pollution, especially particulate matter （PM）, has become a significant issue in urban environment, and has caused increasing incidence of respiratory diseases. Therefore, it is of great necessity to improve the planning and design of built environment to reduce the impact of particulate matter （PM） on health of respiratory system. Based on the literature review about the relationship between PM distribution, respiratory disease and urban spatial factor, this paper establishes a theoretic framework of healthy city planning from the perspective of PM distribution. In this framework, spatial factors that influence PM distribution are selected as independent variable, demographic, social and economic factor are selected as covariants, and distribution of individual patient with respiratory disease （especially lung cancer） and morbidity rate within specific spatial unit are selected as dependent variables. It is followed with discussion of methodology and steps of empirical model construction.