流动人口居留意愿的影响效应及政策评价

INFLUENCE OF RESIDING PREFERENCE OF MIGRANTS AND POLICY EVALUATION

对流动人口居留意愿可能产生的影响效应进行分析,发现从未来的人口流动的趋势来看,大部分的流动人口将在大城市和特大城市(包括超大城市)居留。一代流动人口的返乡意愿相对更强,会加重农村的养老负担,新生代流动人口在城市长期居留的意愿更强,将为大城市和特大城市(包括超大城市)带来巨大的人口压力。应用倾向值分析方法对外来人口调控政策进行评价,发现城市的外来人口调控政策对流动人口居留意愿的影响作用比较有限。分析其原因,发现城市人口的不断增长顺应了城市化和产业集聚的规律,流动者个体选择与城市需求之间的矛盾导致城市的人口压力不断增加,一些现行的人口调控政策措施有待完善,上述问题使大城市的人口疏解政策效果有限。

This paper analyzes the possible influences of residing preference of migrants and finds out that population flowing tendency shows the majority of migrants prefer settling down in large cities and metropolises （including mega-cities）. The willingness in returning to their hometown of the first generation of migrants is comparatively stronger, which will aggravate the aging problem in rural area. And in contrast, the intention of staying in cities of the new generation migrants is much stronger, which will lead to great population pressure for large cities and metropolises （including mega-cities）. Using the method of propensity score analysis to evaluate the population control policy applied in large city and metropolises, we find that the influence of these policies over the residing preference of new generation of migrants is quite limited. We believe the reasons for the policy failure include three aspects： the constant growth of migrant population in cities goes in accordance with the rules of urbanization and industrial agglomeration; the contradictions between the individual decisions and the demand of urban development cause the increase of population stress in cities; and current measures on controlling population expansion need further improvement.