沿海地区海洋环境政策的空间分布规律试析

An Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Marine Environmental Policy in Coastal Areas

随着我国海洋事业的进步和海洋经济的发展,中央和地方政府颁布了一系列的海洋环境政策。对于沿海地区而言,除社会、经济、环境等因素外,空间因素也会对其海洋环境政策产生重要影响。采用莫兰指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型探讨我国沿海11个地区海洋环境政策的空间相关性,分析海洋环境政策空间分布的内在机理,结果表明:我国沿海地区海洋环境政策总体上呈现出较为显著的正空间自相关性,局部上则是较为显著的集聚现象。研究还发现,传统的回归方法并不适用于对海洋环境政策的计量分析,而空间误差模型则是最佳选择,海洋产业总GDP、海洋第三产业GDP对沿海地区的海洋环境政策具有促进作用,相邻地区海洋环境政策的空间滞后冲击和其他具有空间相关性的误差项对该地区的海洋环境政策具有抑制作用。

With the advancement of marine enterprise and development of marine economy in China,the central and local governments have issued a series of policies on marine environment. Apart from economic,social and environmental factors,space factor also has significant impact on policies on marine environment in the coastal areas. Using Moran index,Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model,we explore the spatial correlation of marine environmental policies in eleven coastal areas in China,and analyze the internal mechanism of spatial distribution of marine environmental policies. The analysis reveals that marine environment policies show a remarkable positive space auto-correlation in the coastal areas generally,with remarkable clustering phenomena locally. The study also shows that the traditional regression method isn＇t suitable for quantitative analysis of marine environment policy,but Spatial Error Model is the best choice. The total GDP of marine industry and GDP of marine tertiary industry play a positive role in environmental policy in the coastal areas,and spatial lag impact of environment policy of adjoining areas and other errors featuring spatial correlation have an inhibitory effect on the marine environment policies in a certain coastal area.