FDI、产业聚集是否有助于国际竞争力提升--基于中国制造业PVAR模型的实证研究

CAN FDI AND INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION HELP TO IMPROVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS——An Empirical Research on China's Manufacturing Industries Based on Panel-VAR Model

本文运用联合国商品贸易数据库2004—2013年共十年数据,对我国27个制造业国际竞争力、外商直接投资程度、产业集聚度进行测算,并利用静态面板回归和动态向量自回归PVAR模型对三者之间的内在作用关系进行实证对比分析。结果发现:(1)中国整体制造业国际竞争力稳步提升,但具备较强国际竞争力的还主要集中在劳动密集型行业,而中高技术行业是中国参与全球竞争形成优势最有潜力的行业;(2)我国引入外商直接投资占比变化不大,但其总额提升速度迅猛;(3)我国制造业的平均产业集聚程度呈上升趋势,但其大小程度及变化趋势在不同行业之间有着明显差别;(4)静态面板回归结果表明,FDI渗入程度越高,产业集聚程度越大,越有利于制造业国际竞争力的提升,此外,FDI与产业集聚间存在交互效应继而正向影响国际竞争力的提升;(5)向量自回归(PVAR)模型也显示FDI、产业聚集、国际竞争力间存在长期稳定的相关关系。

This research uses 2004—2013data from United Nations UNCOMTRADE to measure the indexes RCA,FDI and industrial agglomeration of China＇s 27 major manufacturing industries.After that,do empirical researches to analyze whether FDI and industrial agglomeration can improve international competitiveness or not through panel data and PVAR model.The result suggests as follows：（1）The international competitiveness of China＇s major manufacturing industries is becoming stronger,However,with strong international competitiveness is mainly concentrated in labor-intensive industries,while the high-tech industries is the most potential industries to help China to gain new global competitive advantage.（2）At the part of FDI proportion,China＇s manufacturing industries have a little changeable,but the total amount of it is enhanced in a rapid pace.（3）There is an upward trend phenomenon in average industrial agglomeration,it means that major manufacturing industries appear steady agglomeration and extent and trend have significant differences among different industries.（4）FDI and international competitiveness have a significantly positive correlation,it means that if foreign direct investment is deeper,it would have a higher international competitiveness;This phenomenon also appears at the relationship between industrial agglomeration and international competitiveness.Besides,it exists an interaction effect between industrial agglomeration and foreign direct investment,and also affects international competitiveness.（5）The result of panel VAR also shows that there are stable long-term relationships among international competitiveness,industrial agglomeration and foreign direct investment.