基于气象数据的供热机组调峰能力预测方法

A Way of Predicting Peaking Capability of Heat-supply Units based on Meteorological Data

针对我国冬季供热期间弃风现象严重,导致风能不能被电网大量吸纳的问题。提出一种基于气象数据的供热机组调峰能力预测方法。即将整个热网热用户作为一个整体,保证供暖期热用户最低室内温度为18℃的前提下,通过计算在不同室外温度下热用户的采暖热负荷和供热汽轮机采暖抽汽量,最终依据供热机组工况图确定出供热机组的调峰范围。通过实例计算和误差分析表明,该方法简单、实用且精度高,能够通过气象数据预测得到不同初始条件(不同室外温度)下供热机组的调峰范围,以供电网调度参考。在保证机组供热的基础上能使电网最大限度地吸纳风电,促进风能的深度利用。

In China, wind power is always abandoned during the supply heating period in winter, which led to the wind energy cannot be absorbed by the power grid. For this problem, a method based on meteorological data for predicting the ability of peak load of heat-supply units was presented. It is on this premise that the lowest indoor temperature is 18℃, then all heat consumers that are viewed as a whole. And with working condition chart of a heat supply unit, the peak regulation range was obtained by the calculation of thermal load of heat consumers and extraction volume of steam turbines under different outdoor temperatures. Through the instance and error analysis, this method is simple, practical and accurate. The peak regulation ranges under different initial conditions are obtained with meteorological data by this method, which can be as a guide for power grid. So, the power grid to absorb more wind power on the basis of the quality of the heat supply, and increasing utilization of wind power.