“快速通关”贸易促进效应的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Trade Promotion Effect of “Rapid Clearance”

在低关税的时代,快速通关很可能是打破贸易壁垒,推动国际贸易发展的重要手段。文章从四个方面总结了快速通关对国际贸易的影响机制,并基于2008-2010年113个国家相互之间的出口数据,使用Heckman两步选择模型进行了实证研究。结果显示,快速通关对贸易参与和贸易规模都有着显著的促进作用,从多个角度进行稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。快速通关可以通过需求偏好效应、成本效应与全球化生产网络效应和遏制日益强化的非关税贸易壁垒的负面效应,使得多边谈判所形成的关税降低的效应得以真正发挥。此外,文章还发现,自由贸易协定的建立,提升了通关效率与边境管理的透明度,进而提高了国家间的贸易量。文章的研究结论对于理解目前中国建立自由贸易区以及实施在贸易谈判中主导快速通关的措施或建立条款,打破技术贸易壁垒具有重要的意义。

In the era of low tariffs, the rapid clearance is likely to be an important means to break the trade barriers and promote the development of international trade. This paper summarizes the effect of rapid clearance on international trade in four aspects, and then conducts an empirical study through the export data of 113 countries from 2008 to 2010 and a Heckman two-stage selection model. The results show that rapid clearance plays a significant promotion role in trade participation and trade scale, and through ro- bustness check from multiple perspectives, the conclusions are still valid. Through demand preference effect, cost effect and globalization production network effect, rapid clearance curbs the negative effects of increasingly growing non-tariff barriers to trade, making tariff reduction effect based on multilateral negotiations really exert. In addition, this paper also argues that the establishment of FTA can improve the trade volume between countries by enhancing the transparency of customs clearance efficiency and border management. The conclusions are of important significance to the understanding of the establishment of China＇s free trade zones and the implementation or provisions of rapid clearance measures in bilateral or multilateral trade negotiations, and a breakthrough in the technical barriers to trade.