基于动态视角的中国劳动力供给决策实证分析——以杭州出租车司机为例

Empirical Analysis of Chinese Labor Supply Decisions from a Dynamic Perspective:Evidence from Hangzhou Cabdrivers

生命周期劳动供给理论预测工人的劳动供给对短期工资波动有正向的反应,然而不少研究发现国外出租车司机劳动供给弹性是负的。国内出租车司机的情况如何呢?文章用杭州出租车GPS行程数据分析了司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给。为解决由测量误差和同事效应产生的内生性问题,我们用司机当天遇到的长途载客次数作为其每小时工资的工具变量,进而探讨每小时工资对司机劳动供给时间的影响。我们发现,杭州出租车司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给工资弹性均显著为正,这说明政府增加司机每公里燃油补贴等政策的确能激励司机增加劳动供给。另外,这也说明放松出租车市场的价格管制能使司机更好地根据市场需求优化自己的工作决策。

According to the life-cycle theory of labor supply,labor supply of workers responds positively to short-term wage volatility.However,many researches find the elasticity of foreign cabdrivers＇ labor supply to wages is negative.How about Chinese cabdrivers？This paper uses GPS trip information of Hangzhou cabs to investigate the endotaxybased and extensionality-based labor supply of drivers.To address the endophytism problem caused by measurement error and peer effect,it uses the number of fares with long trips the drivers encounter that very day as the instrument variable for earnings per hour to analyze the influence of earnings per hour on drivers＇ labor supply.It argues that the elasticity of endotaxy-based and extensionality-based labor supply of Hangzhou cabdrivers to wages is significantly positive,showing that government policies such as the increase in oil subsidies are actually effective incentives to raise cabdrivers＇ labor supply.Meanwhile,it also implies that the release from the price regulation of taxi market can help drivers to optimize their work decisions better according to the market demands.