基于协整理论和STIRPAT模型的中国城市化对能源消费的影响研究

Effect of urbanization on energy consumption in China based on cointegration and STIRPAT model

运用协整理论分析中国1980-2012年城市化对能源消费的影响,并探讨了城市化对不同能源消费主体的影响,依据1997年以来30个省份的面板数据,运用STIRPAT模型分析了省域城市化对能源消费的影响,并对东中西不同区域的影响差异进行分析。结果显示:城市化与能源消费量存在长期的因果关系,快速城市化进程对能源消费产生了巨大推动作用,城市化水平每提高1%,能源消费将增加1.814%;生产消费占能源消费的主要部分,随着城市化的推进,第一产业和工业消费所占比重减小,建筑业和交通运输等服务业所占比重增加,城乡人均生活能源消费差距越来越小。省域城市化对能源消费具有正向影响,但其作用强度要显著小于人口规模、经济状况和工业水平等因素,东中西不同区域城市化对能源消费的影响作用存在明显差异,东部和中部地区城市化对能源消费有显著的正向影响,且中部地区城市化对能源消费的影响强度更大,西部地区城市化对能源消费产生负向影响,最后从城市化视角对能源政策的制定提出建议。

Cointegration was applied to analyze the impact of urbanization on energy consumption in China from 1980 to 2012, then the effect on energy consumption at the national and regional level from 1997 to 2012was analyzed by using STIRPAT model. The results showed that there was a long- term causal correlation between urbanization and energy consumption, and energy consumption would increase 1. 814% when urbanization increased 1%. Production energy consumption accounted for the major part of energy consumption. With the increase of urbanization, the proportion of energy consumption in primary industry and industry reduced, and service industry increased, especially the construction and transportation industries. The gap between urban and rural per capita energy consumption was getting smaller. Urbanization had a positive impact on energy consumption in provincial level, but its intensity was significantly less than the size of the population, economy and industry levels. The impact of urbanization on energy consumption varied across regions and increased from east region to central region, but urbanization in west region had a negative impact on energy consumption. Finally the article put forward the suggestion to energy policy from urbanization aspect.