我国粮食生产中化肥投入的经济评价和分析

Economic evaluation and analysis of chemical fertilizer inputs in Chinese grain production

基于2013年全国8省农户调查数据和2004-2013年全国农成品成本收益面板数据,通过分析化肥在粮食生产中的边际产出与化肥价格的比率,对我国化肥投入是否过量进行评价。研究发现:目前中国化肥施用量已经超过了经济意义上的最优施用量,农民无论是在小麦、玉米和水稻生产上均存在过量施肥的现象,三种粮食作物的平均化肥过量投入程度达到30%以上;而且小麦、玉米的过量施肥程度较水稻更为严重,黄淮海地区和长江中下游地区的过量施肥程度比其他地区严重。该研究结论为国家促进化肥减量施用提供了数据支持。

Based on a survey of 708 farming households of 8 provinces in 2013 and China national cost of production dataset from 2004 to 2013, we seek to answer the questions that whether or not the China＇s farmers overused the fertilizers by comparing the value of fertilizer in production to its price. Our regression analysis shows that China＇s farmers were overusing fertilizers. Moreover, the results are robust. Regardless of whether we use household-level or provincial -level data, information on wheat, maize or flee, we have generated evidence that Chinese farmers used fertilizers far in excess of the point of optimal profitability. Depending on the scenario, China＇s farmers were overusing fertilizers by up to 30%. And the degree of overuse varied greatly in different crops and regions. The wheat and maize producers overused fertilizers more seriously than rice producers, and in Huang - Huai - Hai plain and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, farmers overused fertilizers systematically more than those in the rest of China. The conclusion provides support for decreasing the amount of fertilizer applied.