中国省域能源消费碳排放空间依赖及影响因素的空间回归分析

Spatial dependence of China' s provincial carbon emissions from energy consumption and its spatial regression analysis

在估算中国大陆30个省区(不包括西藏)1997-2012年能源消费碳排放的基础上,利用空间自相关分析和空间计量模型分析了各省域间碳排放的空间依赖性及其影响因素。研究结果表明:1)中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间依赖性,其空间依赖程度随时间推移不断增强而随距离增加不断衰减。2)LISA分析显示,多数省域碳排放在局部空间上存在"俱乐部"现象,即形成HH型和LL型集聚,各省域碳排放类型在时空演进上表现出一定的路径依赖特征。3)人口规模、人均GDP、能源消费强度对省域碳排放量影响显著,城市化水平对碳排放的正向作用也不容忽视,而产业结构对碳排放并未起到应有的调节作用,回归系数为负但不显著。

This study estimated the carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption in China＇s thirty provinces （ excluding Tibet） from 1997 to 2012, and then analyzed the spatial dependence and main influencing factors of China＇s provincial carbon emissions using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model. The re- sults showed that： l） China＇s provincial carbon emissions displayed a significant positive spatial dependence, and the degrees of spatial dependence of carbon emissions at provincial level increased with time and decreased with the increasing of spatial distance. 2） The LISA analysis indicated that carbon emissions in most provinces of China were characterized by typical club phenomenon, namely the spatial convergenees of HH and LL types across provinces. The changes of provincial carbon emissions types presented a certain path -dependence on the temporal and spatial evolution. 3 ） Population scale, per capita GDP and energy consumption intensity signifi- cantly influenced the China＇s provincial carbon emissions. The positive effect of urbanization level on carbon e- missions could not be ignored, while the industrial structure did not effectively regulate carbon emissions, whose regression coefficient was negative but not significant.