我国农业碳排放与产业结构的关联研究

The association of agricultural carbon emissions and industrial structure in China

在对农业碳排放总量测算分析的基础上,文中采用2003-2013年全国及30个省份的农业碳排放量、农业各产业比重数据,运用灰色关联分析方法,测度了农业碳排放强度与种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业间的关联度,发现产业结构对农业碳排放总体存在较强的关联效应,但各产业比重与农业碳排放的关联程度存在一定差异;不同省份产业结构与农业碳排放的关联程度也存在差异。在此基础上,探讨了发展低碳农业的产业结构调整策略。

Based on the analysis of total agricultural carbon emissions, using the data of agricultural carbon emis- sions, the proportion of agricultural industry of the whole country and 30 provinces from 2003 to 2013, the asso- ciations between agricultural carbon emissions intensity and planting, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were measured by using gray correlation analysis method. The conclusions are as follows ： the structure of agricul- tural industry in China had a strong correlation effect on agricultural carbon emissions, but there were some differences in association degree between the proportion of agricultural industry and agricultural carbon emis- sions; the correlation between industrial structure and agricultural carbon emissions in different regions was also different. On this basis industrial structure adjustment strategy for developing the low carbon agriculture was put forward.