孑遗植物新疆野苹果种群生命表与生存分析

Life table and survival analysis of relict plant Malus Sieversii population

应用"空间代替时间"及匀滑技术,编制新疆野苹果种群特定时间生命表,绘制其死亡曲线和存活曲线,分析其种群数量动态变化。结果表明:新疆野苹果种群处于生命力相对旺盛的中龄期(Ⅴ、Ⅵ龄级比例最高),但因幼龄个体数目稀少而存在衰退趋势;新疆野苹果的死亡率和消失率随着龄级的增加呈现先减小后增加的趋势,种群死亡率在Ⅰ龄级最高(83.2%),Ⅶ龄级最小(28.6%),种群动态表现为前期衰退、中期相对稳定、后期不稳定的特点。

Based on the population life table and the theory of survival analysis, the static life table of Malus sieversii population in Xingjiang was compiled by applying the age class structure represented by DBH class and the smoothing out technique. The mortality rate curve, survival rate curve and survival function curve were also analyzed to reveal the populationg quantitative dynamics. The results are as follows： The DBH class structure of the population indicated that most individuals belong to class Ⅴ and Ⅵ, class Ⅰ - Ⅱ and class Ⅸ are the least. The population is in the vitality of age, however, due to less number of young individuals that the population shows a declining trend. M. sieversii population＇s mortality and disappearance rate curves show increase with the age class after the first decrease and then increasing. The mortality rate of class Ⅰ is the highest （83.2%）. The survivorship curve of population generally matches the type of Deevey Ⅲ. The survival functional curve shows that the M. sieversii population declines in early age period and is stable in middle age period, but undulate in old age period.