工业行业能源消费碳排放影响因素分析——以合肥市为例

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission from Industrial Energy Consumption- Based on Study of Hefei

指出了碳排放的主要来源是工业的能源消费,研究城市工业能源消费碳排放特征和影响因素具有很强的实际意义。以合肥市为例,首先从能源消费量、CO_2排放量、能源结构及能源强度等指标分析了2000~2014年合肥市工业碳排放特征。在此基础上,运用LMDI方法构建了合肥市工业能源消费碳排放影响因素分解模型,定量分析了合肥市工业33个行业的经济发展、能源效率、产业结构、能源结构等因素对合肥工业碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：经济发展是合肥市工业CO_2排放量持续增长的主要原因,同时,能源效率、产业结构、能源结构的变动都不同程度地抑制了CO_2排放量增加。针对分析结果,提出了相关的建议。

Industrial energy consumption is the main source of carbon emission. Therefore, the study on the characteristic and influence factors of carbon emission from urban industrial energy consumption is of great practical significance. Taking Hefei as an example, this paper first analyzed the characteristic of industrial carbon emission from energy consumption, CO2 emission, energy structure and energy intensity index in Hefei during 2000--2014. On this base, by the use of LMDI, the paper also developed a decomposition model of carbon emission impact factors in industrial energy consumption in Hefei, and quantitatively analyzed the impact of economic development, energy efficiency, industrial structure, energy structure and other factors of 33 industries carbon emission in Hefei. Research results showed that., economic development is the main reason to promote the industrial CO2 emission growth in Hefei, while the changes of energy efficiency, industrial structure and energy structure reduce CO2 emission on various degrees. According to the analysis of results, the relevant suggestions were proposed.