基于敏感度模型的非首都功能疏解时序研究

Research on the non-capital function decentralization sequence based on the sensitivity model

利用北京市2012年竞争型投入产出表,构建了敏感度模型,定量分析了最终使用变动1%对某一产业增加值和就业的影响程度。研究表明:1根据经济敏感度系数,北京应该优先疏解金属制品、机械和设备修理服务等8个产业部门。假设上述产业部门全部疏解,对北京市产业增加值的影响为1.06%,对应的产业增加值减少186.4亿元。2根据就业敏感度系数,北京应该优先疏解木材加工品和家具、纺织品等8个产业部门。假设上述产业部门全部疏解,对北京市就业人口的影响为1.31%,对应的就业人数减少12.0万人。3根据综合敏感度系数和首都核心功能定位,北京应该疏解的产业部门依次是批发和零售、化学产品、食品和烟草、金属冶炼和压延加工品、煤炭采选产品等19个产业部门。

Promoting the collaborative development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is a major national strategy, whose core problem is to relief the non-capital function orderly. To determine the industrial transfer priority scientifically is the key to realize the orderly non-capital function decentralization. In this article, we use the competitive input-output table of Beijing in 2012, build the sensitivity model, and quantitatively analyze the influence on economy and employment in Beijing if the final demand changes by 1%. The results show that： 1） based on the economic sensitivity coefficient, the prior decentralization scope has 8 industries including production and distribution of gas, repair of fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment, processing of timbers and manufacture of furniture. If all the smaller economic sensitivity effect industries are decentralized, the impact on Beijing industrial added value will reach 1.06%, the industrial added value reduction relief capacity will reach 1.86 billion Yuan; 2） based on the employment sensitivity coefficient, the prior decentralization scope has 8 industries including processing of timbers and manufacture of furniture, manufacture of textiles, repair of fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment. If all the smaller employment sensitivity effect industries are decentralized, the impact on Beijing employment will reach 1.31%, the employment relief capacity will reach 120000 persons; 3） based on the comprehensive sensitivity coefficient and the core capital function, the comprehensive prior decentralization scope is wholesale and retail trade, followed by manufacture of chemical raw materials and chemical products, manufacture of foods, cigarettes and tobacco, manufacture and pressing of metals, mining and washing of coal, extraction of petroleum and natural gas, manufacture of general-purpose machinery, electrical machinery and equipment, processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nucleus fuel, manufacture of special-purpose machinery, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, manufacture of fabricated metal products, manufacture of measuring instruments and meters, mining of metal ores, processing of timbers and manufacture of furniture, manufacture of fabricated metal products, repair of fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment, manufacture of textile, waste recycling and recovery, mining and processing of nonmetal ores and other ores.