中国农业公共支出的周期性研究

Research on China's Agricultural Public Spending Cyclicality

文章基于2000-2010年省级面板数据，运用工具变量法法刻画了不同的外部冲击对中国农业公共支出的影响。研究发现：（1）人均GDP波动对农业公共支出的影响显著为正，中国农业公共支出具有顺周期；（2）以温度和降雨量增长率加权值为工具变量的人均GDP波动对农业公共支出有显著的正向影响，但影响相对短暂；（3）以城市人均GDP增长率为工具变量的人均GDP波动对农业公共支出的影响显著为正，并且影响持久。文章建议建立正式的农村保险市场，改变农业公共支出的结构和投入方向。

Based on provincial panel data during 2000-2010, this paper describes the response of China's agricultural public expenditures to different exogenous shocks by using instrumental variables estimation. The results find that:(1) real per capita GDP has a strong positive effect on agricultural public expenditures.(2) The real per capita GDP by using weighted growth rate of temperature and rainfall as an instrumental variable has a significant positive effect on China's agricultural public expenditures,but this effect is transitory.(3) Using urban per capita GDP growth rate as an instrumental variable for real per capita GDP has a significant positive effect on China's agricultural public expenditures, and this effect is persistent. The paper suggests that we should establish formal rural insurance market and change the structure and direction of agricultural public expenditures.