中国农村家庭劳动力流动的减贫效应研究——基于CFPS数据的微观证据

China's Labor Migration Effects on Alleviating Poverty for Rural Household:Micro Evidence Based on CFPS Data

文章利用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用线性回归模型和Probit模型实证分析了劳动力流动对全国和不同地区、地貌农村家庭的减贫效应。结果表明,从全国范围的全样本看,劳动力流动既改善了农村家庭绝对收入状况,又降低了陷入贫困的相对概率;但从分地区实证结果看,发达地区劳动力流动对降低家庭贫困发生概率的效果更为显著,并在提升家庭绝对收入上呈现边际效率递减特征,而欠发达地区的边际贡献更高。从家庭所在地村庄特征来看,少数民族聚居区、自然灾害频发区及丘陵地区、高山和高原地区的农村家庭人均纯收入相对较低,贫困发生概率更高,而周围有高污染企业、矿产资源及属于平原区或渔村的农村家庭则相对富裕,陷入贫困的概率更低。此外,家庭特征、户主特征对贫困的发生概率均有较大影响。家庭所在地、整个家庭及户主特征对贫困的影响在地区和空间上存在一定差异。

Using the Chinese family tracking survey(CFPS) data, adopting linear regression model and Probit model, this study systematically analyses the effects of labour migration on reducing poverty in whole country, different regions and landforms. The result shows that, from the views of the whole sample of the national scope, labour force outflow not only enhances the level of the per capita net income of rural households significantly, but also reduces the incidence rate of rural family poverty compared to the families without labour mobility. However, from views of the empirical results by regions, labour migration of developed areas has more significant effect on reducing the probability of family poverty. In the process of raising the level of per capita net income of households, the effect of reducing poverty in developed area is characterised diminishing marginal efficiency, while labor migration in less developed areas has more contribution to the per capita net income level of rural household. From the views of the characteristics of a family's location(i.e. a village), per capita net income of rural families who live ethnic minority areas, regions with natural disasters occurring frequently, hilly areas, high mountain and plateau areas are relatively low, and the poverty incidence is higher than that in other areas. Rural families who live in areas with high polluting enterprises, mineral resources, and in plain areas are relatively rich, and the poverty incidence is lower. The characteristics of family and the head of a household have effects on the probability of poverty. The effects of the location of household, the whole family and the characteristics of head of a household on poverty have certain variance by region and space.