基于加密降水资料的贵州地质灾害概率预报模型

Probabilistic Forecasting Model for Guizhou Geological Hazards Based on High Resolution Precipitation Data

运用信息量法进行了地质灾害易发性评价,将全省划分为3个易发等级。利用贵州省2009—2014年的地质灾害和降水数据,分析了每个等级中地质灾害概率与有效降水量之间的关系。在此基础上,利用概率论方法将动态临界雨量引入预报模型,建立了基于动态临界雨量的地质灾害概率预报模型。结果表明:对于任意的易发区划等级,诱发地质灾害的临界雨量并不是静态的,而是分布在一个非常大的区间上;当有效降水量为该区间上一个特定的值时,用相应的概率来描述地质灾害发生可能性的大小,而不是地质灾害一定发生更为恰当;在2015年的检验中,模型预报准确率超过80%,说明该概率预报方法具有实际应用价值,能起到良好的预报预警作用。

The information quantity method is used to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards,and the whole province is divided into 3levels.Based on the geological disasters and precipitation data from2009 to 2014in Guizhou Province,the relationship between the probability of geological hazards and the effective precipitation at various levels is analyzed.On the basis of this,the dynamic critical rainfall is introduced into the forecast model by the method of probability theory,and the probabilistic forecasting model of geological hazards based on the dynamic critical rainfall is established.The results show that：The critical rainfall of geological hazards is not static,but distributed in a very large range.When the effective precipitation is a specific value in the interval,it is more appropriate to describe the occurrence probability of geological disasters with the corresponding probability.The model prediction accuracy rate is more than 80%in 2015,which shows that the proposed method has practical application value,and can play agood role in forecasting and early warning.