摘要
能源预测在企业管理中起着重要的作用。为了解决电力能源预测系统存在的问题,先使用一个经典的灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行建模,通过MATLAB仿真软件,然后根据企业前九个月的电能消耗数据预测后3个月的电能消耗数据,画出仿真曲线。最后利用改进的灰色模型PGM(1,1)再进行仿真,比较仿真结果曲线发现改进的预测算法模型具有更小的平均相对误差,PGM(1,1)算法克服了GM(1,1)灰色模型中数据可能存在短时间内出现波动的情况,使预测模型的结果更加接近企业实际的电能消耗数据。
Energy forecasting is important in enterprise management ,In order to solve the problems existing in the system of power energy forecasting ,To use a simple grey forecasting model GM （1 ,1） was simulated firstly ,Through Matlab simulation software ,Then according to the enterprise for the first nine months of the power consumption of data to predict three months after the power consumption of data .Draw the simulation curve .lastly ,Using the improved gray model PGM （1 ,1） ,Comparing the simulation results curve found improved prediction algorithm model has a smaller average relative error ,PGM （1 ,1） algorithm to overcome the GM （1 ,1） grey model mutation of data in a short period of time ,Make the results of the prediction model is more close to the enterprise actual power consumption data .
作者
孟祥忠
林存海
Meng Xiangzhong Lin Cunhai(College of Automation and Electronic Engineering, Qingdao University o{ Science and Technology, Qingdao 266042, Chin)
出处
《电子测量技术》
2016年第9期1-3,共3页
Electronic Measurement Technology
