制造业与物流业协调发展测度方法及实证分析

Measurement and Empirical Analyses of Synergetic Development of Manufacturing and Logistics Industry

运用协同理论构建制造业与物流业复合系统协调度模型,基于产业理论从产业投入、产出、规模、结构和成长五个维度建立了两业协调发展指标体系,以重庆2000-2013年的两业发展数据为样本进行实证研究。分析表明,复合系统协调度模型不仅可以衡量两业协调发展的程度,而且可以反映两业协调发展的演化趋势;从产业理论出发建立指标体系,则较为全面的反映了两业发展的深刻内涵和内在逻辑关系。结果显示,样本期间内重庆两业总体呈现从失调到逐步协调的演化发展趋势,但仍处于低水平协调阶段。

Using the synergetic theory,this paper builds a composite system synergetic degree model of manufacturing and logistics industry.A synergetic development indicator system is then established based on the industry theory from five dimensions,namely,industrial inputs,outputs,size,structure,and growth.An empirical research on the relevant data of Chongqing from 2000 to 2013reveals a few findings.First,the composite system synergetic degree model can not only measure the synergetic development extent,but also reflect the evolutionary trend of synergetic development of the twoindustry.The index system established based on the industrial theory reflects the profound connotation and the inherent logical relationship of the two-industry.The result shows that,in the sample period,the development of the two-industry shows an upward tendency from maladjustment to progressive synergy,but the synergetic level remains low.