基于Logistic回归的降雨诱发区域地质灾害易发性区划及预报模型建立——以安徽歙县为例

Research on rainfall induced regional geo-hazard forecast model based on the logistic regression

安徽省黄山市歙县地处皖南山区,区域地质环境脆弱,加之不合理的人类工程活动进一步恶化地质环境,在降雨作用下导致灾害频发,地质灾害表现出"点多面广、突发性强、灾害损失大"等特点,因此地质灾害防治与预警工作显得尤为重要。但是现有地质灾害预警预报过分强调气象预警,没有实现降雨与地质灾害形成的地质条件的有机结合,预警预报精度不高。本文以研究区502个历史灾害点及125条灾害点降雨数据为基础,深入研究了黄山市歙县地质灾害易发性区划方法、降雨诱发地质灾害的时空分布与降雨的关系,完成了基于地质条件的降雨诱发区域地质灾害预报模型研究,实现了对地质灾害区域气象预警。

She County is located in the south of Anhui Province,within the region strongly terrain cutting,high mountains and steep slopes,fragile regional geological environment,coupled with irrational human activity which result further deterioration of geological environment. Under rainfall,it will cause a lot of geological disasters. Geological disasers in Shexian have the characteristic of ＂ quantity,broad,suddenly,big disaster losses＂and so on,so prevention and control mechanisms and monitoring and early warning of geological disasters were particularly important. But current disaster warning was over emphasize weather warning,can not combine rainfall to the geological conditions,the precision and accuracy of early warning and forecast accuracy is not high. In this paper,based on 502 historical geological disasters and 125 rainfall data,deeply studied the division of geological disasters susceptibility and the relationship between rainfall and the distribution of time and space of rainfall-induced geological disasters,completed the study of the rainfall induced regional geo-hazard forecast model based on the geological conditions,realized the geological disaster weather warning.