我国石油工业上游可持续发展能力评价研究

The Evaluation on the Sustainability of the Upstream Sector of the Chinese Oil Industry

在石油工业发展面临新形势背景下,我国石油工业上游的内、外发展环境发生了根本性变化,对其进行可持续发展能力评价意义重大。大型石油企业作为石油工业上游发展的主要载体,以可持续发展能力界定为前提,通过分析影响石油工业上游可持续发展的因素,选取合理的评价指标,利用构建的多层次权变系数与灰色关联结合模型,具体量化了我国石油工业上游的可持续发展能力情况,从而能够客观分析我国石油工业上游可持续发展能力存在的优势和不足。研究表明:与以美国、英国、加拿大等国家为代表的西方石油工业发达国家相比,我国石油工业上游生产经营实力存在明显不足、管理能力有待提高、技术创新差距较大,但发展潜力和外部经济环境良好。据此,从全行业视角出发,提出了提升我国石油工业上游可持续发展能力的对策建议,即实施积极的勘探开发路径,实行低成本管理和勘探开发一体化管理,着力推进国际化经营,大力实施科技创新,完善相关政策和法规,加快市场化进程。

In a new development situation,both the external and internal environments faced by the upstream sector of China′ s petroleum industry have changed substantially.Therefore,an assessment of the sustainability of the sector is very important.Large oil companies are the main players in the upstream sector of the oil industry.With the purpose of defining the sustainability of the Chinese oil industry,this article analyzes the factors affecting the sustainability of the upstream oil sector,selected appropriate assessment indicators and used a constructed multi-level contingency coefficient and grey correlation combination model to quantify the sustainability of the upstream sector of the Chinese petroleum industry in the hope of better understanding the advantages and disadvantages of the sector in terms of sustainability.Study shows that compared with western countries which have developed oil industries,such as the United States,the United Kingdom and Canada,the upstream sector of the Chinese oil industry considerably lags behind in operational strength,technical innovation capability and managerial capacity although it enjoys better development potential and exter-nal economic environment.From an industry perspective,this article puts forward suggestions on improving the sustainability of the upstream sector of the Chinese oil industry,including implementing an active exploration and development route,carrying out low-cost and exploration and development integration management,strengthening international business and technical innovation,perfecting related policies and rules and quickening marketization.