教练员更替能改善中国足球超级联赛球队的表现吗?

Can Coach Turnover Improve the Performance of China Football Association Super League Teams?

运用2009—2015赛季中国足球超级联赛的球队数据,通过倾向得分匹配方法构造了与教练员更替相匹配的处理组与对照组的面板数据,并使用倍差法实证研究了赛季中途的教练员更替与球队表现之间的因果关系。有两个主要发现:1)教练员更替能够显著改善球队的短期表现,使球队的场均积分提高大约0.27分,以及胜率提高8.7%,但对于场均进球数和场均失球数没有显著影响;2)新教练员的个人特征对于教练员更替效应没有显著影响。因此,教练员更替是通过触发球队内部球员之间激烈竞争的机制从而改善球队的短期表现。

Based on the data of teams in China Football Association Super League in season 2009—2015,this paper constructs panel data in which treatment groups and control groups are matched,and studies the causal relationship between within-season coach turnover and teams performance by matching difference-in-difference method.It draws conclusions as follow：firstly,coach turnover significantly improve teams＇ short-term performance.Specifically,the points gain per game and winning probability in turnovered teams are 0.27 and 8.7%higher than the ones in unturnovered teams.However,goals or concedes per game of teams do not change with coach turnover events.Secondly,the individual characteristics of new coaches have no significant impact on the effects of coach turnover.Therefore,coach turnover improve teams performance by the mechanism of triggering competition between players within-team.