外出农民工流动规模变化:特征与意义

Guiding Value of Inclusive Growth Theory in Urbanization of Migrant Workers

从流动人口视角看,全国省际间人口流动规模巨大,2000与2010年流动率呈高度相关,存在显著特定区域集中趋势。从农民工视角看,流动率稳中有升,外出农民工数量规模增速较快,已成为农民工的核心力量,农民工负担系数逐年降低,其自身城市融入能力增强。进一步分析发现,随着农村劳动人口逐渐减少,外出农民工规模增速明显放缓,数量规模变化出现拐点,外出农民工规模呈收敛趋势;农民工规模变化呈明显外出农民工特化趋势,其规模相对强度逐渐增大,外出移动效果显著。以上外出农民工流动规模变化及特征在推进公平社会建立、助力"三农"问题有效解决及促进工业化和城市化建设中具有重要作用。

From the perspective of the floating population, the inter-provincial population flow in the country with a large scale, presented the highly relevant turnover rate in 2000 and 2010, which were very significant concentration trend in a particular area. From the perspective of migrant workers, the turnover rate was steady, but a rising trend, and the quantity scale of rural migrant workers with fast growth, which had become the core strength of migrant workers, in addition that burden coefficient of migrant workers reduced year by year so that their abilities to integrate into the city had been strengthened. Further analysis found that, with the gradually reduce of rural labor population, the growth rate of rural migrant workers scale was clearly slowing, and the change of quantity scale appeared inflection point, which presented the convergence trend of rural migrant workers scale. On the other hand, the change of migrant workers scale showed an obvious specialization trend of rural migrant workers, and the scale relative intensity increased gradually, in addition that the effect of moving out was remarkable. The change of rural migrant worker flow scale and its characteristics, as mentioned above, played an important role in economic and social development, such as promoting the establishment of a fair society, for helping to effectively solve ＂agriculture, farmers and contryside＂ and promoting industrialization and urbanization, and so on.