中国旅游业CO_(2)排放因素分解：基于LMDI分解技术

Decomposition of China's Tourism Carbon Emissions:Based on LMDI Method

本文基于＂自下而上＂法估算了1993~2012年中国旅游业能源消费和CO_2排放量,并对其总体变化趋势进行时间序列分析;以LMDI分解技术辨识与分解4个时段（1993~1997年、1998~2002年、2003~2007年和2008~2012年）中影响中国旅游业CO_2排放量变动的关键因素及其对CO_2排放量的贡献值。结果显示：20年来中国旅游业能源消费与CO_2排放量增长态势明显;其中旅游交通是中国旅游业能源消费和CO_2排放的核心部门,年平均比重分别为88.51%和77.42%,旅游住宿次之,旅游活动的贡献最小。LMDI分析结果显示,产业规模和空间结构是引起中国旅游业能源消费CO_2排放量增加的主要因素,能源强度是引起CO_2排放量减少的主要贡献因素;旅游业CO_2排放量增幅较大的省区多数位于东部地区,这是当前中国旅游业实行节能减排的重点区域。本文据此指出中国旅游业节能减排的主要方向、核心环节、重点区域和相应措施等。

UNWTO proposed that tourism＇s contribution to global warming is estimated at 4. 9% of global CO_2 emissions and forecasted that by 2035 this contribution rate will increase with an average annual rate of 2. 5% growth. Therefore,energy consumption and CO_2 emissions in tourism sector has become a hot topic in recent years. By using the bottom-up approach,this paper estimated energy consumption and CO_2 emission of tourism industry in China over the period of 1993 ~ 2012. The method of LMDI analysis was used to identify key factors causing the change of CO_2 emission in tourism industry and its contribution to overall CO_2 emissions in 4 periods（ 1993 ~ 1997,1998 ~ 2002,2003 ~2007 and 2008 ~ 2012） was also estimated respectively. The results show that：（ 1） Time-series analysis showed a strong overall rising trend of energy consumption and CO_2 emissions in tourism industry,among which energy consumption cumulatively increase by 121335. 71 × 108 MJ and CO_2 emissions by 99320. 95 × 104 t during 1993 ~ 2012;（ 2） Tourism transportation is the core subsector contributed mostly to tourism energy consumption and CO_2 emission,with the annual average proportion of 88. 51% and 77. 42% respectively. Tourism accommodation takes the second place,and the contribution of tourism activities is the smallest;（ 3） Industry scale,spatial structure and combined effect promoted CO_2 emission to increase by 12589. 02 × 104 t,2118. 86 × 104 t and 199. 30 × 104 t respectively while energy intensity and industrial structure promoted to decrease by 10101. 70 × 104 t and 27. 00 × 104 t respectively;（ 4） CO_2 emissions in tourism industry increase largely in most of eastern provinces,which are the key areas to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.Based on the above findings,some relevant recommendations about relying on the national policy and innovation of science and technology are put forward to promote energy utilization efficiency and reduce CO_2 emission of China＇s tourism.