达尔罕茂明安联合旗草原蝗虫发生与气象条件的相关关系

Correlativity between Grassland Grasshopper Occurrence and Meteorological Conditions in the Damao Banner

文章利用达尔罕茂明安联合旗(下文简称,达茂旗)1992—2013年草原蝗虫发生资料和同时段气象资料,对达茂旗草原蝗虫生长发育期关键气象条件进行分析,选取草原蝗虫发生发育期间相关气象影响因子,建立达茂旗草原蝗虫发生密度和面积的气象预报模型。通过模型分别对历史资料进行回代检验,密度回代检验结果,白云鄂博、满都拉和希拉穆仁3站较为准确;面积回代检验结果,白云鄂博、百灵庙和希拉穆仁的正确率较高,蝗虫发生等级预报基本正确。通过对2014年草原蝗虫发生的试报检验,白云鄂博与希拉穆仁预报结果较好。利用模型的预报结果可以为提前了解蝗虫的发生趋势、有效指导当地蝗虫防控工作提供参考。

Using the grasshopper occurrence data and homochronous meteorological data in Damao Banner from 1992 to 2013, this article analyzed the key meteorological factors in the period of growth of grasshopper, the relevant meteorological factors in the period of occurrence and growth of grasshopper, the meteorological forecasting model of occurred density and area of grasshopper. The history date was return tested by the meteorological forecasting model, the density return test result of Baiyunebo Mandula and Xilamuren weather stations was relatively correct, the area return test result of Baiyunebo Bailing temple and Xilamuren weather stations was relatively correct, the grade forecasting of grasshopper occurrence was basic right. Throughout the experiment forecast of grasshopper occurrence in 2014, the forecast result of Baiyunebo and Xilamuren was better. The model prediction results can advance the understanding of locust occurrence trend, provide references for the effective guidance to local grasshopper prevention and control work.