区域产业转移的定量测度与政策适用性研究

Research on Quantitative Measurement and Policy Applicability of Cross-Regional Industrial Transfer

很多实证研究表明,中国至今都没有发生大规模产业转移,这与传统产业理论分析和产业转移政策预期形成了巨大反差。为了辨析这一悖论式现象,一方面,根据各地产业发展水平的相对和绝对变化,使用单一指标测度区域产业转移的状况,结果表明传统产业理论并不完全适用于中国产业转移分析;另一方面,基于区域产业转移的部分经验事实,使用结构方程模型,对产业转移影响因素的分析也表明,各级各地政府密集出台大量无差别的产业转移政策,显然缺乏充分的经验论证。因此,避免对传统产业理论分析的过度依赖,全国范围内不同行业的产业转移政策可以保留一些基本相似的措施,但是各地产业转移政策理应存在较大差别。

Many empirical studies have indicated that there has not been a large-scale industrial transfer in our country, which is totally different with the analysis of traditional industrial theory and the expectation ofindustrial transfer policy . In order to discriminate the paradoxical phenomenon, on the one hand, we will use a single index to measure regional industrial transferaccording to the relative and absolute changes of the industrial developing level. The results show that the traditional industry theory is not completely applicable to analysis of industrial transfer in our country. On the other hand, based on part of the experience fact about the regional industrial transfer, we used structural equation modeling to analyze the industrial transfer factors, which also shows that industrial transfer policy can retain some similar reforms in different industries, built is essential to make a difference in different region. At present, governments at all levels introduce a large number of intensive industrial transfer policies, which is lack of sufficient experience to prove. Thus, it is difficult to achieve substantial results.